Canada’s COIN Centre Officer on NEXT Year’s AFG Elections
While the media are busy hashing out what they think will be happening next with the declaration of Hamid Karzai as President, Canada’s man with the US Army/USMC Counterinsurgency Centre, LCOL John Malevich (more on him here and here) is already thinking about next year’s Afghan elections for parliamentary and district representatives.
Why does he think these coming ballots are important?
It is paramount that these elections take place in a climate that is free and fair and seen to be so by the Afghan people. It is essential that district elections take place next year …. In 2005 they were cancelled and district governors were appointed — many of which did not represent the interests or enjoy the support of locals. The district is where people live and in Afghanistan all politics are local.
Realizing Afghans appear to need to get used to the idea of one-man-one-ballot on a national scale, Malevich suggests:
A concerted voter education and IO campaign needs to take place in order to attempt to explain elections and re-establish some form of legitimacy and faith in the system between Afghans and their government.
He calls for “a full court press by all security stakeholders,” suggesting an interesting defensive concept for the elections:
The security model that I advocated has three rings of defence: Afghan police at the polling centers and villages; Afghan Army and highway police in the areas between population centers; and ISAF operating with the Afghan Army in those outer spaces. In order to make this work, all hands need to be at the pump. This is not an economy of force operation! Roads must be clear in order to facilitate voting, and only those polling centers that are secured and have an international presence, i.e. ISAF personnel, should be allowed to open.
Three issues I have with this:
1) Lately, the message from NATO has been that the Afghan security forces have to step up to the plate. If the red bit above is to be the rule, why have the other two layers mentioned in the blue bit above?
2) Will there be enough ISAF troops to, if I red the red bit correctly, protect a majority of polling stations?
3) I’m as sensitive about negativity as the next guy, but can we realistically “re-establish some form of legitimacy and faith in the system between Afghans and their government” in a year’s time? I’m happy to hear and share the ideas of anyone else who thinks this is possible, and I also believe one candle lit is better than cursing the darkness, but I’m a bit unsure of the feasibility of this.
